Our Grey Cup 2026 prediction comes down to one question: can the best defence in the CFL slow down the best quarterback? The Montreal Alouettes (14-4) are three point favourites over the Edmonton Elks (13-5) in the 113th Grey Cup tonight at McMahon Stadium in Calgary, with kickoff at 6:00 PM ET.
Edmonton opened the season as the longest shot in the league at +1900. Montreal has MOP Davis Alexander and the league’s most explosive passing game. Here are the odds, the numbers that matter, what the experts say and our final pick.
Grey Cup 2026 Prediction at a Glance
| Details | |
|---|---|
| Our pick | Alouettes 30, Elks 27 |
| Spread | Alouettes -3 (some books list Elks +3.5) |
| Moneyline | Alouettes -165, Elks +140 |
| Total | 55.5 points |
| Kickoff | Sunday, November 15, 6:00 PM ET (4:00 PM MT) |
| TV | TSN, CTV, Crave and RDS in Canada. CFL+ in the USA and worldwide |
Odds as listed by theScore, TSN and RotoWire on November 14 and may move before kickoff.
Alouettes vs Elks: Tale of the Tape
| Stat | Alouettes | Elks |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 14-4 (1st East) | 13-5 (1st West) |
| Points per game | 34.7 (2nd) | 30.1 (3rd) |
| Points allowed per game | 26.4 (3rd) | 24.3 (1st) |
| Total offence per game | 420.9 yards (1st) | 396.3 yards (4th) |
| Rushing per game | 110.8 yards | 127.6 yards (1st) |
| Sacks allowed | 19 (fewest) | 34 |
| Takeaways | 33 | 42 (1st) |
| Turnover margin | +21 | +23 (1st) |
| Field goals | 42 of 46 | 55 of 59 |
Montreal is the better offence. Edmonton is the better defence. That is why this game feels closer than the odds suggest.
How the Alouettes Win the Grey Cup
- Davis Alexander stays clean. The MOP threw for 5,257 yards, 35 touchdowns and just 4 interceptions, with a 122.7 passer rating that ranks third in CFL history. He was sacked only 15 times.
- Tyson Philpot and Tyler Snead win outside. Philpot set a Canadian single season record with 1,809 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns. Snead added 1,474 yards and 13 more. Philpot is also a former University of Calgary Dinos receiver, so tonight is a homecoming.
- Montreal cashes in close to the goal line. The Als scored touchdowns on 85 percent of goal to go trips, best in the league.
- Big plays early. Alexander hit 37 completions of 30 yards or more. Two or three of those can bury any underdog.
How the Elks Pull Off the Upset
- Force turnovers. Edmonton led the CFL with 42 takeaways and 27 interceptions. Tyrell Ford had 7 picks, tied for the league lead. Montreal turned it over only 23 times, so something has to give.
- Get after Alexander. Malik Carney (11 sacks) and Noah Taylor (10) give the Elks a pass rush Montreal did not see often.
- Run the ball and shorten the game. Justin Rankin ran for 1,170 yards and Cody Fajardo added 517 more, the most by any CFL quarterback. Long drives keep Alexander on the sideline.
- Win the kicking battle. Vincent Blanchard made 55 of 59 field goals with a long of 57. In a tight game, that is a weapon.
- Fajardo’s revenge. He won the 2023 Grey Cup and MVP with Montreal before the trade. Nobody on the field knows the Als better.
Head to Head: Alouettes vs Elks in 2026
| Date | Result | Key fact |
|---|---|---|
| June 20 | Elks 32, Alouettes 29 (OT) | Fajardo won it on an overtime walk off in Edmonton |
| August 8 | Alouettes 48, Elks 30 | Alexander threw 4 TDs; Philpot caught 10 for 131 yards and 3 TDs |
The season series finished 1-1. Alexander passed for more than 350 yards in both games, which tells you Edmonton’s league best defence has not solved him yet.
Key Trends for the 113th Grey Cup
- Underdogs cover: Underdogs are 8-2 against the spread in the last 10 Grey Cups, according to TSN, with five outright upsets.
- Unders usually hit: Six of the last eight Grey Cups stayed under 55.5 points, per RotoWire.
- Weather helps offence: Calgary expects a dry day with a high near 12°C, possibly the warmest outdoor Grey Cup in years.
- History: This is the 12th Grey Cup between these clubs. Edmonton won eight of the first 11, including the last one, 38-35 in overtime in 2005.
What the Experts Predict
| Source | Pick |
|---|---|
| Calgary Herald (Todd Saelhof) | Alouettes 31, Elks 24 |
| theScore | Alouettes 44, Elks 37 |
| TSN 3rd and 1 | Leans Montreal; likes the total to go over 55.5 |
| RotoWire | Elks +3.5; total under 55.5 |
Every expert we found picks Montreal to win. They split on the margin and on whether this turns into a shootout.
Our Grey Cup 2026 Prediction
Montreal has the edge at quarterback, and Alexander has shredded this defence twice already. But Edmonton forces turnovers better than anyone, runs the ball well and has the most reliable kicker in the league. That points to a close game, not a blowout.
Prediction: Alouettes 30, Elks 27. Montreal lifts its ninth Grey Cup, Edmonton keeps it within a field goal, and the game lands just over the total. If Edmonton wins the turnover battle by two or more, flip the pick.
For a deeper look at the matchups, read 5 things that will decide Alouettes vs Elks. Make your own call on our playoff predictor, print our Grey Cup squares for the party, find channels on how to watch Grey Cup 2026, and follow the live score on our 113th Grey Cup page.
Grey Cup 2026 Prediction FAQ
Who is favoured to win the 2026 Grey Cup?
The Montreal Alouettes are favoured by about three points, around -165 on the moneyline. The Edmonton Elks are about +140.
What is the Grey Cup 2026 point spread?
theScore lists Montreal -3, while BetMGM lists Edmonton +3.5. The total is 55.5 points.
Who won when the Alouettes and Elks played in 2026?
They split. Edmonton won 32-29 in overtime on June 20, and Montreal won 48-30 on August 8.
Who are the key players in the 113th Grey Cup?
For Montreal, MOP Davis Alexander and receivers Tyson Philpot and Tyler Snead. For Edmonton, Cody Fajardo, Justin Rankin, Austin Mack and defensive back Tyrell Ford.
Have underdogs done well in recent Grey Cups?
Yes. Underdogs are 8-2 against the spread in the last 10 Grey Cups, with five outright wins, according to TSN.
What is the Grey Cup 2026 prediction?
We pick the Alouettes to win 30-27. Montreal has the better quarterback, but Edmonton’s defence and kicking should keep it close.
What time does the Grey Cup start tonight?
Kickoff is 6:00 PM ET, which is 4:00 PM MT in Calgary, 3:00 PM PT and 11:00 PM in the UK.
Where can I watch Alouettes vs Elks?
In Canada on TSN, CTV, Crave and RDS. In the USA and the rest of the world, free on CFL+.
Final Word
Our Grey Cup 2026 prediction is a Montreal win, but not an easy one. Alexander and Philpot give the Als the edge, while Edmonton’s takeaways, run game and kicking give the Elks a real shot at finishing their run from +1900 long shot to champion. Kickoff is 6:00 PM ET, so be on early for the Snowbirds and the anthem.
Odds are for information only and can change. Please gamble responsibly where it is legal.
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